Why am I optimistic for Afghanistan beyond 2014?

Am I the only one who sees light at the end of this tunnel?!?

Almost everyone, both inside Afghanistan and outside, is deeply worried about the year 2014 for Afghanistan. I, however, am not only worried, but am quite optimistic about the prospects of the country beyond 2014. Those who are worried about 2014 cite two major events that could make or break the future of the country, namely the presidential elections in May and the withdrawal of the foreign troops from the country in June. A third item added to the agenda is now the signing of the BSA or Bilateral Security Agreement with Afghanistan and the US.  

I am optimistic about the future for precisely the same reasons that others are worried, namely the election and troop withdrawal. The election is a good sign because regardless of who comes to power next and how democratic the process will be, we know for a fact that Afghanistan has come a long way, with regards to capacity building, from 2001 and Afghans will be able to run at least decent or good enough government. After all, everything is truly relative. We can’t expect a perfect transition of power (especially since this is touted to be the first ever in our history, a view with which I disagree, but that is a different topic) and we can’t expect even close to a perfectly functioning government in Afghanistan, at least not in my life time and with the current education system. But if we look back in 2001 or 2002 and fast forward to 2014, both the face and the inner workings of governance has changed, mostly for the better, making us believe that decent governance is possible with the given levels of human capital in the country. Ask anyone in the government and they would be happy to give you all the statistics in all sectors of the country. Don’t ask them about the quality, though!

Now to the second point, i.e. troop pull-out, I am not so worried about this factor because I know their presence was not much helpful for the country anyway, so one can’t rationally expect their departure to be detrimental. The foreign troops can be and have in fact been helpful in one regard – a deterrence force to prevent extremist groups, such as the Taliban, from taking over the country by force as they did in mid 1990s. But one may say, zero option will take that deterrence force away, to which my response is, if zero option were to be exercised, I, too, would be worried, and in fact, extremely worried. But although I see zero option a possibility, I think it is a remote and a lot less probable possibility. Whether or not it is a bluff remains to be seen, though.

I think a more REAL concern l lurks behind all the cries about the troop withdrawal, and that is the fear that the troops will take away with them all the lucrative contracts that they offer, which gets passed down through multiple layers of sub-contracting, thus feeding every circle, and their circles, in the long chain. Does that sometimes include people like myself? Probably, but again, that is not the point here! At its peak, the US expenditure alone in Afghanistan has reached nearly $100 billion a year (this includes both military and development budget)! Imagine pumping dollars, five times the country’s GDP, in a year, and what do you get out of it? Many problems, chief among them being corruption! So my argument is that troop drawdown will certainly tighten the dollar’s faucet, which will reduce its accompanying side effects, including corruption, which has not only made Afghanistan notorious in world stage but has made life difficult for the most vulnerable segments of the population.